Betfair Guru interview

This interview was first published on the blog at fulltimebettingblog.com/ on 24th November.

Hello BFG For those who aren’t aware of who you are, how long have you been trading on sports and what has been the extent of your involvement with sports trading overall?
Hi Geoff, I have been trading for over 6 years now but 4 and a half years full time. I began like most people do with the horses. In the very early days I thought trading was just backing a horse, laying it lower and getting a free bet on it. I had no idea as to the hedging concept.
I wasn't a major betting man before I came into this so the approach i ultimately adopted (stat and edge based) really suited my mentality more than it would for others.

How did the idea for the BFG service come about?
It first came about when i realised how many people were struggling to make a success of it. The main reason people struggle is because the people who know what they are doing do not post on internet forums. Most of the people offering advice there are no more clued up than the people they are advising. There are notable exceptions and Geeks Toy Forum has some real shrewdies on there who offer the occasional subtle little diamond. In the main though there is nowhere you can speed up the learning process and that's where I come in.

How long has it been set up?
I started the original email service in October 2010 and it's gone from strength to strength with over 300 members at it's peak. We are currently settled around 210 as a lot of members shifted over to the live service when I introduced that in June 2011.

That was the natural progression for the email service really as a lot of people wanted that live trading experience and to really get a grip on the markets and how they work.
I capped the live service initally at 25 members but I have recently opened the books as the longer term members are now really up to speed and making money off their own backs so i have more free time to devote to a new intake. The beauty of the live service is ... everything is proofed to the room BEFORE entry is made. So it's clear for everyone to see how profitable the service is. If you don't make money then neither do I!

In response to several email requests, I also established the Stage 3 service (currently running a competition for best name as I can't think of one!) . This is purely a value based tipping service currently compounding at 12.7% ROI since it's full inception in March 2011. It's a bet and leave service that suits the betting man. It certainly isn't for people who want to learn how to trade!

There are so many people out there that are having trouble trying to crack this trading game. Is there a common mistake that you find newer members often make?
The biggest mistakes people make are:
1.) Rushing in before they really understand their chosen market.
2.) Starting off thinking they can make a fortune from a small bank.
3.) Over staking trying to speed up the process and sustaining heavy losses that your bank cannot handle
4.) Understaking which in turn leads to over trading which again leads to just having to do too much to make any decent amount of money.
5.) Lack of patience (don't need to be doing something all of the time), discipline (if you lose you lose) and bad bankroll management are also major hurdles for most new traders.

Is Lay the draw- dead as a dodo?
In it's crudest format - certainly. However with intelligent game selection and an appreciation of the market you can still make use of this strategy. I advise LTD selections daily in the email but there are extra conditions you can incorporte to increase profits and lower liabilities. It's not rocket science but you obviously get more stake for liability at HT as the draw odds are lower. Statistically more goals are scored in teh second half so if you have a good selection procedure - that's one approach you could consider if you can accept you will have less possible entries.

From what I have seen you seem to use a variety of trading techniques from scalping to swing trading. Do you have a favourite strategy /sport?

Without a doubt the best markets for my temperament are the tennis markets. The only time I will really scalp is on the pre-race horses but even then I feel your time spent trading them is better invested identifying the bigger moves. What I mean is if you are going to spend time waiting for indication that something is going to move - you may aswell get it all rather than the odd tick here and there. Scalping is soemthing I'm trying to leave behind.

Tennis is the one for us really although I have adapted the approach i use there to be suitable for NFl, NBA, Cricket and the occasional football match aswell.

I won't go into the strategy too much here but it's basically educated position taking and 99% price related.

Plenty of other trading services out there- what makes yours any different?

We make money at the end of the month! No seriously I hear there are some cracking services out there at the moment, I know you are very fond of the guys at trading football. If they are providing a value for money service then nobody can knock them.

The whole point of my service is that it's absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to not make money. You SIMPLY HAVE TO WIN trading how we trade in the live room. there is no "if" or gamble about it. It's purely mathematical certainty.

And I think that's what trading should be about. We trade the market not my opinion so we always get the right price and we are guaranteed to win long term.

There are many people out there that seem to believe sports trading is as simple as watching a match and entering the market in your view, how important is research to making money in sports trading trading?

This is a contentious issue with me. if you are betting in-play based on waht you see then you are still betting. Trading isn't betting and getting out cheap if you guess wrong. It's a long term game based on numbers and prices. POT (percentage on turnover) is your friend here rather than flat ROI since trading gives the potential to turn your bank over many many times with no risk of huge drawdowns.

Anybody coming into this with a betting mentality will struggle to make it pay.

I don't argue that people aren't making money betting in-play since it's obvious that they are, but they are not trading. They are betting with a keen eye for value (whether deliberate or accidental) and that's a whole different ball game.

A knowledge of your chosen sport to trade should only serve to enhance your edge - your edge shouldn't be dependent on it.

Do you have a preferred training api- is one even necessary?

With the new additions to the Geeks Toy, the software is unrivalled in my opinion. It has everything that I need and is the only truly customisable software on the market. And it's FREE! And he's (Geek) has got a sense of humour and a goos solid morals. There aren't many people like that in the industry unfortunately.

You have a training mode available now but I would be wary of using any kind of training mode as it doesn't give you a 100% clear picture as you get matched when sometimes you wouldn't and the tendency is there to do things you wouldn't do with your own bank. It's far better to trade with £2.50 stakes to give you a better picture.

In terms of software though, GT is the dogs in my opinion.